What happens in Iran could reshape the world order as we know it

The war in the Middle East spiralled further today as Israel and the US pounded Iran in response to attacks on Israel, other Arab states and against targets critical to the world’s production of oil and natural gas.

The intensity of the attacks, the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the lack of any apparent exit plan have set the stage for a prolonged conflict.

Iran has long threatened, if attacked, to drag the region into total war, including targeting Israel, the Gulf Arab states and the flow of crude oil crucial for global energy markets.

The Regime has made good on that promise, throwing the region into turmoil, which could upend the international world order as we know it.

Dr Robert Johnson, Senior Research Fellow at Pembroke College in Oxford and Director of the Oxford Strategy, Statecraft, and Technology Centre, spoke with georgiacomo.org about what this conflict could mean for the world.

Questions of legality and international decorum have been brought up as well, but Dr Johnson said that Trump appears eager to create a new set of ‘norms’, as do two other countries: Russia and China.

How the conflict in Iran could change international affairs

‘Two of the three most significant states in the world are talking about reorganising international affairs,’ Dr Johnson told georgiacomo.org.

‘The Europeans, the British, and many members of the UN General Assembly are struggling to come to terms with this new dispensation, which appears to be based on “national interests first.’

One international norm, which hasn’t been called into question by any nation, however, is nuclear proliferation, Dr Johnson said.

‘Iran was, as far as we can see, in breach of that. There were certain programs underway—for example, the Natanz nuclear program.

‘You would not bury a normal civilian nuclear program under a mountain; that is clearly a military installation,’ he explained.

How do Russia and China fit into this?

Russia and China are allies of Iran – or at least, they were.

The two countries have condemned US intervention in the Middle East, but Dr Johnson pointed out the hypocrisy of Russia’s condemnation of ‘another unprovoked act of armed aggression’ after their illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

China also did, calling for a ceasefire and resumption of negotiations. But China is highly dependent on fuel supplies coming through the Gulf.

Dr Johnson said: ‘In Beijing, they’ll be thinking that if the Americans are this unpredictable, they don’t know how the U.S. would react to a move against Taiwan.

‘Rather than giving China a license to operate against Taiwan, I suspect they will calculate that the risk is too high while President Trump is in power.’

How the conflict could affect the UK

Though China and Russia face risks of energy supply loss after the attacks in Iran, there are ‘greater risks’ for the UK and Europe than for America.

Dr Johnson referenced the 1973 oil shock in Britain, when Arab members of OPEC halted shipments to the US and other nations that supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War.

‘That led to a three-day work week, lost jobs, and shut industries. There is a risk that a prolonged war could do that again, particularly when the UK government has decided to tax its own North Sea energy companies at a rate of 78%,’ Dr Johnson added.

‘The economics of this are as important as the military operations.’

But during a different conflict – the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s – oil prices actually fell because companies underwrote damages to keep the oil flowing.

Dr Johnson said: ‘It is very hard for Iran to close the Straits of Hormuz; they couldn’t do it in the 1980s, and they will struggle to do it again. The Houthis have shown you can interfere with Red Sea traffic, but you can’t stop it entirely.’

The West isn’t thinking about ‘long-term’ effects

‘The West is not thinking long-term. We need to ask: what is the long-term power relationship in the Gulf? If the Iranian Republic collapses and is replaced by a democracy, it would be a beneficial outcome: secure oil flow, less militarisation, and no threat of nuclear weapons,’ Dr Johnson explained.

‘Israel would calm down, and Iran would no longer sponsor proxy forces. If the Republic fails, these Iranian proxies will have fewer munitions, less supply, and no ideological inspiration or advisors.’

Even if Iranian proxies in the region survive the potential collapse of the Islamic Republic, they will face great obstacles – but will survive.

For example, after cutting ties with Tehran, the Palestinian Liberation Organisation continued.

But Dr Johnson added: ‘If the Islamic regime survives, they will use these instruments (the Houthis, Hezbollah, and militias in Iraq) as tools for their policy even more than before.

‘We would see them return to full strength over time. It would be a return to the dreadful cycle of conflict afflicting the Middle East.’

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